Germany at home, with a fully fit squad (except for their goalkeeper - Rene Adler will start). Bet on them. They have this ability to turn on for important matches, and is one of them. They sit on top of the table but Russia are behind them by 1 point with a game in hand, so they will need to win this one to ensure automatic qualification. Which is why they will win. Oh and Russia have lost Pavlyuchenko, who has been shite anyway, and Torbinsky to injury. They were both crucial to Russia's great run in the Euro, so I think that Germany will have an easier time.
Roland's prediction: $5 on Germany -0.5 @ 1.75 = $8.75
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