as great as we are, we tipsters gotta eat too

Wednesday, June 11, 2008


<1.76> <3.50> <3.65>

the swiss head into this match without the injured frei, and i think that makes a huge difference to their side. eren derdiyok is unproven, marco streller is a shitkicker in the mould of the greek shitkickers who played like shit against sweden to give me an expected win last night. hakan yakin is quality, but he's a playmaker, not a scorer, and i think the swiss will have it all to do against the turks in this match. that's not to say that the turks will win. they have problems of their own, with both central defenders doubtful for this one, and belozoglu emre also sitting out. however, another theory long used in football betting is that a "heavy boat sinks" - ie too many bets on one team will cause that team to not win. we saw that with france against romania, when odds tumbled for a france win, only for them to put up a limp performance. tonight we see the same with swiss odds coming down rapidly. in a game which will see the losers packing their bags prematurely, i think a draw would be the result neutrals and tournament organisers prefer, and that's what's gonna happen.

- Eddy's prediction: $5 on draw @ 3.50 = $17.50

As Eddy said. Switzerland don't have Frei - their captain and all time top goalscorer. Turkey are without Emre, and the central defensive pairing of Gokhan Zan and Servet Cetin are doubtful. Meaning that they're likely to start, because that's how team news always goes. I doubt home team advantage will do much with Frei out injured. Even though the Swiss had several chances against Czech Republic, most fell to Frei. Without Frei, I doubt that Streller can step up to the occasion. Turkey have a great striker in the form of Nihat, and it's because of the difference in quality in their strike forces that I'm siding the Turks.

- Roland's prediction: $5 on Turkey @ 3.65 (3.72 now, idiot Eddy!) = $18.25

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