as great as we are, we tipsters gotta eat too

Sunday, April 6, 2008

6 Apr 2008 (s-league, epl, fa cup, german bundesliga)

ok first post by me. been enjoying some good results of late, and have decided to take my buddy on in public through this site of course. hopefully we'll be able to help you guys out there make some money at the same time. so here goes.

Balestier Khalsa v SAFFC (S-League)
<19.00> <8.00> <1.05>

well well. I'm a great believer of "the rot HAS to stop somewhere", and balestier khalsa's rot is so bad you could smell it from a sealed room halfway around the world. 2 points from a possible 21 since the start of the season, 5 goals scored, 10 conceded, balestier really can't do any worse.

now now, you may be thinking that i'm asking you to have a small wager on balestier, but honestly, don't. i did say it has to stop somewhere, but SAFFC is not a team you'd like to bet against. there is not much point in backing SAFFC though, a $100 bet would give you $5. even if you do have $100, i'd advise against risking it like that. SAFFC are 6 from 6, and look like retaining their S-League crown. however, the players could be stretched by international and AFC Cup commitments. John Wilkinson is suspended for the match, and being a vital cog in the SAFFC engine, it could stop SAFFC from producing their champagne football. Balestier, as a side who look to defend all the time could very well frustrate SAFFC. the 10 goals conceded by balestier is the best from a team in the bottom half, and considering all these factors, 1.05 is not a risk worth taking at all.

however, if you have to have a bet, i'd advise you to back balestier on the handicap, where they have a +2.5 goal advantage over saffc. i really do not think balestier will be beaten by 3 or more, as they seldom get whacked, and in fact if you remember the 1-1 draw with tampines rovers earlier this season, they possess the ability to frustrate better opposition. singapore pools is offering you 2.35 to take balestier on the handicap, and i say take it.

Verdict: If you have to bet, take balestier +2.5 (2.35).

Middlesbrough v Manchester United (EPL or BPL, whatever you call it)
<8.00> <4.50> <1.28>

Manchester United are under some sort of pressure from Chelsea breathing down their necks with a typical effective yet unconvincing display at the City of Manchester Stadium. as such, I predict Manyoo to come up tops in this one, although once again, at 1.28, you'd be better off spending your money having a few beers than taking the risk. Middlesbrough seem to have found a little form in the second half of the season, producing good displays against sides like Arsenal and Villa, so 1.28 is honestly, a little insulting to the boro. my advice is to stay away from the match. on the 1.5 handicap market, taking manyoo to win by two goals or more is priced at 1.95. this could be worth taking, as ronaldo and rooney are in fantastic form. however, boro being the home team, could well frustrate manyoo, and as such i fancy boro with the handicap at +1.5. odds are a little low though, at 1.70. to add to the confidence behind backing boro on the handicap, nemanja vidic is out, and his solid presence at the back will certainly be missed by fergie.

Verdict: have a little wager on boro +1.5 (1.70), could earn you enough money for a beer or two. but don't go all the way.

Barnsley v Cardiff (FA Cup Semi-Final)

an unlikely FA Cup semifinal sees two Championship sides battle it out to earn the right to face off against Pompey at Wembley in the final. I really fancy Cardiff in this one. to me, there are only two possibilities here, a draw, or a Cardiff win. Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink returns to the Cardiff eleven, after missing his last 3 through suspension. I suspect Barnsley will be more concerned with trying to stay in the Championship, and as such, will end up losing this one, but you just never know. Everyone wrote off Barnsley when they faced Pool and Chelsea, but they came through those tests with flying colours. however, i'm backing cardiff because of the superior quality in the squad. they have the superb peter whittingham, who almost single-handedly demolished middlesbrough in their last cup outing. glenn loovens is also very useful in defence, and i think barnsley will have to up their game a lot to be able to beat cardiff.

Verdict: It could be a draw (3.10) or a cardiff win (2.15), but i'm more inclined to go for the 2.15 outright win for cardiff. if you're adventurous, take cardiff -1.5, which has an attractive price of 4.20.

Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
<2.25> <3.20> <2.70>

A very tough one to call, as both teams have good quality, on paper at least. Leverkusen have lost their last two matches, both shameful home defeats to Eintracht Frankfurt (0-2) and Zenit St Petersburg (1-4). A draw looks likely, but i'll stick my head out to predict a win for Bayer Leverkusen (2.70). Rather good odds actually, and I reckon the leverkusen players will be looking to put things right and arrest their slide which has seen them slip out of the Champions League places, although they do have a game in hand. to add to the argument for a leverkusen win, christian worns is suspended, and he has been an integral part of the dortmund backline. a win for leverkusen here would propel them back into the top 3 places, as they have a superior goal difference to hamburg and werder bremen, and that is exactly what i am going for here.

Verdict: Bayer Leverkusen for the win (2.70).


In conclusion, using $30 as capital, this is how I would spend it.

$10 balestier khalsa +2.5 (2.35)
$10 cardiff win (2.15)
$5 middlesbrough +1.5 (1.70)
$5 bayer leverkusen (2.70)

Total if ALL win: $23.50 + $21.50 + $8.50 + $13.50 = $67

my buddy and i will battle it out like that week after week, and our performances will be tracked in a table, which i should be coming up with soon. anyway, good luck for the bets, and hopefully everyone is richer!


zhongmin said...

nice blog you have here eddy!

eddy said...

haha thanx. and it looks to have got off to a good start! its between me and roland. we're like having a little challenge, but also hopefully can help our readers in deciding where to put their betting dollars on every weekend!